I would be curious as to whether the graphs would look dramatically different if, instead of taking the UN population projections which assume mean-reversion (very unclear if / how soon that'll happen) it instead assumes that the birth rates stay at their current levels in each country.
Pension argument is not sound. Some places like Chile have partially or fully transitioned away from PAYGO system. They have individual, private accounts for retirements. Another example is Mexico, which transition in 1997 with those born 1980-present (and 2007 for federal employees) to the AFORES system . Countries like Mexico/Chile better ground than Argentina/Brazil/Spain, which are countries that never transitioned out of PAYGO system
I wonder, what happens in this model to countries that can replace ~half their workers with 120+ IQ workers, which is where the latest publicly available leading edge AI models are? With 140+ IQ? (Next December's models.)
(Sure, AIs currently have problems with maximum time on task and with memory/learning from experience. But max task time is up from ~15 minutes to ~420 minutes over the course of 2025 and there does not appear to be a slowdown in improvement yet, and memory is a hot research topic with no apparent show-stoppers. This time next year we can expect max task duration to be ~200 hours, an intense month for a human.)
Super interesting!
I would be curious as to whether the graphs would look dramatically different if, instead of taking the UN population projections which assume mean-reversion (very unclear if / how soon that'll happen) it instead assumes that the birth rates stay at their current levels in each country.
Pension argument is not sound. Some places like Chile have partially or fully transitioned away from PAYGO system. They have individual, private accounts for retirements. Another example is Mexico, which transition in 1997 with those born 1980-present (and 2007 for federal employees) to the AFORES system . Countries like Mexico/Chile better ground than Argentina/Brazil/Spain, which are countries that never transitioned out of PAYGO system
central asia seems to be a very underrated region with a lot of potential
Thaks for all that work, Sebastian!
I wonder, what happens in this model to countries that can replace ~half their workers with 120+ IQ workers, which is where the latest publicly available leading edge AI models are? With 140+ IQ? (Next December's models.)
(Sure, AIs currently have problems with maximum time on task and with memory/learning from experience. But max task time is up from ~15 minutes to ~420 minutes over the course of 2025 and there does not appear to be a slowdown in improvement yet, and memory is a hot research topic with no apparent show-stoppers. This time next year we can expect max task duration to be ~200 hours, an intense month for a human.)