Estimating IQs of public figures

Mar 25, 2023

To mathematically estimate the IQs of these people, I used publicly available data such as scholastic achievement scores, ethnicity, GPA, wealth, self-reported IQ scores, and so on. Generally, I try to avoid using too many predictors as these variables will covary for other reasons besides intelligence, so continuous regression will result in mistakes.

Many of these figures have exceptionally high IQ/scholastic achievement scores, which should be appropriately regressed to the mean. However, given that they are public figures, this is overall an indication that the result itself may not be a fluke. It is difficult to separate the non-flukes from the flukes, so I gave the safer low estimates instead of the higher estimates.

Personal judgements of intelligence are based on assessments of characteristics that are difficult to quantify or justify.

Confidence intervals were added to indicate how variable I think the estimate is. Estimates based on scholastic test scores or real IQ scores are less variable, while those based on achievement or wealth are more variable. These are not supposed to be symmetric, and most of them have a high upper tail intentionally. Be aware that these are not mathematical judgements, but subjective judgements.

Here are the mathematical estimates I calculated:

Kanye West: 116 [105, 130]

Aella: 130 [120, 150]

FORG1VENGRE: 132 [115, 160]

Scott Alexander: 133 [125, 145] (Verbal Ability: ~145 given perfect SATV)

Joseph Bronski: 139 [130, 150]

Curtis Yarvin: 144 [130, 170]

Light Yagami: 144 [135, 150]

Magnus Carlsen: 146 [130, 170]

Eliezer Yudkowsky: 152 [135, 160] (Crystalized Ability: ~155 given evidence)

L: 156 [145, 190]

Here are my personal judgements for each: